When Are Optical Fibers Expected to Drop in Price?

I. Overall Timing Forecast (Consensus from Multiple Securities Firms and Industry Research)

1.2026 (Now‑Year‑End): No price cuts, prices fluctuate at high levels The production‑expansion cycle for optical preforms lasts 18‑24 months. New‑built capacities launched in 2025‑2026 cannot go into operation at present. Order backlogs at leading manufacturers will last until the first half of 2027. Long‑term contracts from AI computing centers and over‑seas major clients have locked up production capacity. Prices for conventional G.652‑D and high‑end special‑type optical fibers generally stay high with only minor short‑term swings, leaving no room for sharp declines.

2.Earliest turning point: Mid‑2027 (June‑September), prices of standard optical fibers start to ease New production capacities from domestic manufacturers (HTGD, ZTT, YOFC) and Corning's overseas plants will come on stream in bulk, lifting global optical‑fiber capacity by 30%‑50%. Low‑to‑mid‑range G.652‑D standard optical fibers will be the first to face downward price pressure. Industry estimates foresee its price dropping from the current 100‑120 RMB per core‑kilometer to 60‑70 RMB.

3.Full‑scale price‑cut cycle: Late‑2027 to 2028 All newly‑built preform and drawing capacities are fully released, the supply‑demand gap narrows sharply, and prices for ordinary optical fibers enter a distinct downward phase. Price drops for high‑end special optical fibers (G.654E, G.657A‑2) will lag behind. Sustained market demand from computing and data centers keeps supply tight and prices firm before 2028.

II. Key Factors That Accelerate or Delay Price Falls

Triggers for faster price drops: Cooling‑down of the AI computing‑construction boom, slower long‑term procurement by large overseas cloud vendors, falling raw‑material costs such as helium, and smooth commissioning of production capacity from numerous new cross‑industry market entrants

Factors postponing price cuts: Surging demand for optical‑fiber consumables in military‑industry and drone sectors, delays in overseas capacity commissioning, and late delivery of core preform‑manufacturing equipment

III. Sourcing Advice for Foreign‑Trade Purchasers

2026‑First Half of 2027: Prioritize long‑term contract stock‑ups amid high spot prices

After Q3‑2027: Adopt a wait‑and‑see strategy in batches and place large‑scale orders after prices of conventional optical fibers correct downwards